SFERA 2 reentry prediction

Simulation date: 2018-11-29

Atmosphere model: NRLMSISE-00, data file: 2018 Nov 29 07:00:02.41
Gravity model: J2 + J3
Average reentry date: 2018-11-29 16:13

The graph is the result of a Monte Carlo simulation used to calculate the reentry date and the reentry location (see here for the details).

The graph shows the predicted reentry location for each Monte Carlo simulation (the blue dots represent the original, unmodified, TLEs).

Now we have only 1 orbit for the most probable reentry location (the orbit starts from the blue dot near 90 degrees east). The most probable reentry longitude is -100 ± 20 degrees.

Simulation date: 2018-11-27

Atmosphere model: NRLMSISE-00, data file: 2018 Nov 27 10:00:02.30
Gravity model: J2 + J3
Average reentry date: 2018-11-29 16:06

The graph is the result of a Monte Carlo simulation used to calculate the reentry date and the reentry location (see here for the details).

The graph shows the predicted reentry location for each Monte Carlo simulation (the blue dots represent the original, unmodified, TLEs).

Simulation date: 2018-11-16

Atmosphere model: NRLMSISE-00, data file: 2018 Nov 16 19:00:02.23
Gravity model: J2 + J3
Average reentry date: 2018-12-01.3

The graph is the result of a Monte Carlo simulation used to calculate the reentry date and the reentry location (see here for the details).

The graph shows the predicted reentry location for each Monte Carlo simulation (the blue dots represent the original, unmodified, TLEs).

This simulation further refines the most probable reentry areas.
Here's the shape of the predicted last orbit and the corresponding airspeed (corotating atmosphere assumed).
The vertical green line represents the starting time of the last orbit. In this simulation, the last orbit starts about 92 minutes before reentry, at an altitude of about 148 km. The dotted blue plot represents the radius vector minus 6371 km.
The graph shows a possible reentry profile of the dynamic pressure and satellite airspeed (corotating atmosphere assumed) obtained by propagating 4 TLEs.
Notice the very small max-q due to the small ballistic coefficient (the best fit average ballistic coefficient is about 40 kg/m2).
Here is shown the approximate stagnation point heat development during reentry.

Simulation date: 2018-11-09

The graph is the result of a Monte Carlo simulation used to calculate the reentry date (see here for the details).

The average reentry date is 2018-11-25.7. The 95% confidence interval based only on the variance of the reentry dates is ±19 hours.
The graph shows the predicted reentry location for each Monte Carlo simulation (the blue dots represent the original, unmodified, TLEs).

The previous simulation started to show a clear pattern for the reentry location. This simulation is also showing some less probable reentry areas.
Here's the shape of the predicted last orbit and the corresponding airspeed (corotating atmosphere assumed).
The vertical green line represents the starting time of the last orbit (the last orbit starts about 87 minutes before reentry, at an altitude of about 148 km) and the dotted blue plot represents the radius vector minus 6371 km.
The graph shows a possible reentry profile for the dynamic pressure and the satellite airspeed (corotating atmosphere assumed).
Notice the very small max-q due to the small ballistic coefficient (the best fit average ballistic coefficient is about 31 kg/m2).

Simulation date: 2018-10-21

The graph is the result of a Monte Carlo simulation used to calculate the reentry date (see here for the details).

The average reentry date is 2018-11-23. The 95% confidence interval based only on the variance of the reentry dates is ±1.4 days.
The graph shows the predicted reentry location for each Monte Carlo simulation (the blue dots represent the original, unmodified, TLEs).

This simulation starts to show a clear pattern for the reentry location.

Simulation date: 2018-09-09

The graph is the result of a Monte Carlo simulation used to calculate the reentry date (see here for the details).
The graph shows the predicted reentry location for each Monte Carlo simulation.

Still no evident reentry location pattern.